The 2nd day after….
The EUR is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day.
The US election is still in doubt. The Arizona vote has narrowed with Trump coming on strong (next vote update not until 9 PM ET). Nevada will report their votes at 12 AM ET. Biden has a 8K lead in that state. Fulton county in Georgia will report a batch at 11 AM ET. Biden is 18K votes behind Trump in that state. Pennsylvania still has a batch of votes from the predominantly Democratic Philadelphia county yet to be released. Trump holds a lead of 164K in Pennsylvania, but there are enough votes to turn that lead around.
Today, initial claims and the Fed decision is on the schedule. The Fed is not expected to change policy. The monthly US jobs data will be released tomorrow.
Stocks are higher and risk-on remains on (at least in the stocks). The bond market may is not on that same page as yields are modestly lower but trading near the day’s highs. Yesterday yields fell sharply in the US.
The ranges and changes have the US dollar trading at session lows vs the major currencies. There has been price action above and below the unchanged line but only marginally below the line. Stocks are up solidly for the 4th consecutive day in Europe and in the pre-market in the US and that has the flow of funds out of the dollar (the normal Pavlovian reaction of late).
In other markets:
- Spot gold is up higher in reaction to the lower dollar. The price is currently up $24.70 or 1.3% $1927.70.
- Spot silver is up $0.90 or 3.77% at $24.80
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.25 or -0.64% at $38.88
In the premarket for US stocks are sharply higher:
- Dow, +400 points. Yesterday the index rose 367.63 points or 1.34%
- S&P index +63 points. Yesterday the S&P rose 74.28 points or 2.2%
- NASDAQ index +302 points. Yesterday the NASDAQ rose 430 points or 3.85%
In the European stock market, the major indices are for the 3rd consecutive day:
- German DAX, +1.51%
- France’s CAC, +1.15%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.62%
- Spain’s Ibex, +1.9%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.9%
in the US debt market, the yields are mixed, but off the lows. The 10 year yield is trading at 0.761% near the highs after trading as low as 0.716%. The 30 year bond is at 1.529% after trading as low as 1.478%:
In the European debt market, yields are mostly higher with the exception of Italy which is down -1.16 basis points.