The 50% retracement of the move since September 1 stalled the rally last week
The AUDUSD moved higher last week and in the process the price was able to extend above its 100 bar moving average, on the 4-hour chart, but stalled not far from its 50% retracement of the range since the September 1 high. The high price last week reached 0.72084. The 50% retracement comes in at 0.72088.
The price corrected lower on Thursday and Friday and in the process has developed a upward sloping trendline that has held support in trading today. That trend line currently cuts across at 0.7167 (and moving higher). That is just above the 38.2% retracement of the move down since the September 1 high at 0.71607. A move below both those levels would tilt the bias more to the downside going forward. Stay above keeps the buyers more in control
On the topside today, the price has stalled against its 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.71905. The high price today extended to 0.719234 before finding sellers near the resistance, and rotating back to the downside. We currently trade at 0.7178.
If the buyers are to remain in control, getting and staying above the 100 bar moving average and then 50% retracement at 0.72088 would be the next targets. Above those levels, and traders would target the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.72254. The price has not traded above that level since September 21.
Drilling down to the 5 minutes chart, the price has recently moved back below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the chart at the 0.71803 to 0.71813 respectively. Buyers would want to see a rotation back above those levels soon to keep the intraday momentum going. A move below 0.71758 would take the price below a swing area and tilt the bias intraday more to the downside.